Global Data Centres 2025: Who’s Spending What -and Why It Matters

TL;DR: The data-centre build-out is in overdrive, led by hyperscalers racing to stand up AI infrastructure. Analyst Dell’Oro now sees global data-centre capex compounding ~21% annually to $1.2T by 2029. In 2025 alone, the “Big 4” clouds have telegraphed record budgets (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet/Google, Meta), while colocation REITs are guiding multi-billion programs of their own. Power and grid constraints are now a board-level risk, not a facilities issue. Dell Oro Group

The headline numbers

• Industry growth track: Global data-centre capex is forecast to grow at a 21% CAGR through 2029, reaching ~$1.2 trillion, with hyperscalers accounting for roughly half of that investment. Dell Oro GroupYahoo FinanceLightwave Online
• Cloud demand signal: Enterprise spend on cloud infrastructure services hit ~$99B in Q2’25, up ~25% YoY—an immediate driver for new capacity and refresh cycles. Synergy Research Group
• Power reality check: Data-centre electricity use is ~415 TWh in 2024 and has grown ~12% annually over five years; multiple IEA analyses indicate usage could roughly double by 2026, crossing 1,000 TWh. IEAIEA Blob Storage
• Operator sentiment: Uptime Institute’s 2025 survey flags rising costs and worsening power constraints as top concerns as AI drives higher densities. Uptime Institute

Hyperscaler budget guide (FY25/Calendar 2025)

Numbers below reflect company guidance/commentary for total capex, which is now dominated by AI/data-centre infrastructure.

• Amazon (AWS) — “Over $100B” 2025 capex, with AWS as the primary driver (per CFO Olsavsky). Yahoo Finance
• Microsoft — ~$80B capex in FY25 to expand AI and data-centre infrastructure. Q4cdn
• Alphabet (Google) — Capex raised to $85B for 2025, largely for data-centres and AI. Nasdaq
• Meta — 2025 capex $64–$70B, “driven by AI.” Seeking Alpha

Analysts triangulate that AI-related infra spend in 2025 will exceed $350B among major U.S. tech firms, with broader global cloud capex estimates around $445B—a 50%+ YoY jump—underscoring an extraordinary investment cycle for compute, networking, and power/thermal. Business InsiderInvestors

Colocation & interconnection: budget specifics

• Equinix (EQIX) — Non-recurring capex: $3.52–$4.00B in 2025 (includes xScale; ~$450M expected to be reimbursed via JV), plus recurring capex: $272–$292M. Equinix, Inc.
• Digital Realty (DLR) — 2025 capex (net of partner contributions): $3.0–$3.5B; recurring capex + capitalized leasing costs: $320–$335M. Development pipelines and land banking target multi-hundred-MW campuses in U.S. hotspots. Q4cdn+1

What this means: REITs are leaning on JV structures and fund vehicles to stretch balance sheets, while prioritizing power-rich land, accelerated grid interconnects, and high-density halls for AI clusters.

Where the money is going (line-items to watch)

1. Accelerated compute & networking: GPUs/accelerators, optical interconnects, and high-bandwidth fabrics remain the fastest-growing slice of budgets. (Capex intensity tracks AI cluster build cadence; see Dell’Oro’s upward revision.) DatacenterDynamics
2. Power & thermal: Substation upgrades, on-site generation/PPAs, switchgear, and liquid cooling retrofits/new builds. Uptime reports density/power constraints climbing the risk register. Uptime Institute
3. Real estate & land banking: Multi-GW master-planned campuses near transmission capacity (e.g., Northern Virginia, Dallas, Phoenix, Columbus, Madrid, Dublin)—with grid access now a gating factor called out by industry leaders. Financial Times
4. Sustainability & energy procurement: Long-dated renewables, storage, and exploration of nuclear options in select markets to de-risk intermittency and meet 24/7 carbon-free goals. Financial Times

Risks and constraints to budget execution

• Power availability & quality: Grid connection queues and power quality issues near DC hubs are driving schedule risk and cost escalations. Uptime Institute Blog
• Supply chain lead times: Transformers, switchgear, and advanced cooling gear still carry extended lead times, locking in capex earlier in the cycle (noted across operator surveys). Uptime Institute
• Operating cost inflation: As densities rise, so do OPEX for power and cooling—even as contractual pass-throughs partially offset. (Operators are guiding for higher power costs in 2H.) Equinix, Inc.

What to watch next (H2’25 and 2026)

• AI cluster cadence: Quarterly guidance updates from AWS, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta—any changes to 2025–26 capex run-rates will cascade into supplier backlogs (power, racks, cooling, optics, servers). Investors
• Grid & policy moves: Transmission upgrades, accelerated interconnect processes, and incentives for on-site/near-site generation will separate winners from also-rans. Financial Times
• Regional shifts: Tight Tier-1 markets are pushing builds to Tier-2 metros and energy-advantaged regions; watch land deals and long-term PPAs. Synergy Research Group

Bottom line for leaders

Budgets are no longer just about white-space and megawatts; they’re about assured power, accelerated compute, and time-to-AI-value. Expect continued capex outperformance where operators secure grid capacity, lock in energy, and design for liquid-cooled, high-density AI workloads. The investment cycle is real, it’s global—and it’s increasingly constrained by electrons, not concrete.

Sources

Dell’Oro Group (capex forecasts); Synergy Research Group (cloud spend); IEA (power use/doubling risk); Uptime Institute (power constraints & costs); company guidance (Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta); Equinix & Digital Realty 2025 investor materials. Key links cited inline. Dell Oro GroupSynergy Research GroupIEAIEA Blob StorageUptime InstituteYahoo FinanceQ4cdn+1NasdaqSeeking AlphaEquinix, Inc.

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